Nigeria economy grew in real term by 2.51% y/y, translating to a positive 0.2 ppt outrun to the performance in Q1:2023. This is according to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Q2:2023 released by the NBS, the The performance of the GDP was mainly driven by the service sector, which grew 4.4% y/y (contribution: 58.4%) while agriculture posted growth of 1.5%. However, the Industry sector contracted by 1.9%. According to Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, Statistician-General National Bureau of Statistics, “Nigeria Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.51% (year-on-year) in real terms in the second quarter of 2023. This growth rate is lower than the 3.54% recorded in the second quarter of 2022 and may be attributed to the challenging economic conditions being experienced. The performance of the GDP in the second quarter of 2023 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 4.42% and contributed 58.42% to the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector grew by 1.50%, an improvement from the growth of 1.20% recorded in the second quarter of 2022. The growth of the industry sector was -1.94% relative to -2.30% recorded in the second quarter of 2022. In terms of share to the GDP, agriculture, and the industry sectors contributed less to the aggregate GDP in the second quarter of 2023 compared to the second quarter of 2022.
He said “in the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N52,103,927.13 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the second quarter of 2022 which recorded aggregate GDP of N45, 004,520.89 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 15.77%. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors (Pages 5 & 6). The nation in the second quarter of 2023 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.22 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.43mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2022 by 0.22mbpd and lower than the first quarter of 2023 production volume of 1.51 mbpd by 0.29mbpd. (Figure 3). The real growth of the oil sector was –13.43% (year-on-year) in Q2 2023, indicating a decrease of 1.66% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2022 (-11.77%). Growth also decreased by 9.22% points when compared to Q1 2023 which was –4.21%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of -14.12% in Q2 2023. The Oil sector contributed 5.34% to the total real GDP in Q2 2023, down from the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2022 and down from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 6.33% and 6.21% respectively.
“The non-oil sector grew by 3.58% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q2 2023). This rate was lower by 1.19% points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2022 and 0.81% points higher than the first quarter of 2023. This sector was driven in the second quarter of 2023 mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunication); Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Trade; Agriculture (Crop production); Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco); Construction; and Real Estate, accounting for positive GDP growth. In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 94.66% to the nation’s GDP in the second quarter of 2023, higher than the share recorded in the second quarter of 2022 which was 93.67% and higher than the first quarter of 2023 recorded as 93.79%.
“The Mining & Quarrying sector consists of Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Metal ore and Quarrying and other Minerals sub-activities. This sector grew nominally by -7.11% (year-on-year) in Q2 2023. Metal Ores exhibited the highest growth rate of all the sub-activities at 186.40%, followed by quarrying and other minerals activity at 60.83%. However, Crude Petroleum and Natural gas was the main contributor to the sector with a weight of 85.80% in Q2 2023. Comparing Q2 2023’s rate of growth relative to Q2 2022 and Q1 2023 growth rates, there was a decline of 56.86% points and a fall of 3.59% points respectively. The Mining & Quarrying sector contributed 6.58% to the overall GDP in the second quarter of 2023, lower than the contributions recorded in 2022 second quarter at 8.20% and lower than the previous quarter at 6.73%.
In real terms, the Mining and Quarrying sector grew by –12.16% (year-on-year) in the second quarter of 2023. Compared to the same quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, it was lower by 1.07% points and lower by 8.20% points respectively. Quarter- on- quarter, the growth rate recorded was -11.11% during the quarter. The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to Real GDP in the quarter under review stood at 5.58%, lower than the rate of 6.51% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2022 and lower than the 6.26% recorded in the first quarter of 2023. “Four sub-activities make up the Agricultural sector: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing. The sector grew by 11.42% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q2 2023, showing a decrease of 2.41% points from the same quarter of 2022. Looking at the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 5.24%, there was an increase of 6.19% points. Crop Production remained the major driver of the sector. This is evident as it accounts for 88.06% of the overall nominal value of the sector in the second quarter of 2023.
Quarter-on-quarter growth stood at 9.15% in the second quarter of 2023. Agriculture contributed 21.07% to nominal GDP in the second quarter of 2023. This figure was lower than the rate recorded in the second quarter of 2022 and higher than the first quarter of 2023 which recorded 21.90% and 19.63% respectively. The agricultural sector in the second quarter of 2023 grew by 1.50% (year-on-year) in real terms, an increase of 0.30% points from the corresponding period of 2022, and an increase of 2.40% points from the preceding quarter which recorded a growth rate of -0.90%. It grew on a quarter-on-quarter basis at 6.06%.
“However, the sector contributed 23.01% to overall GDP in real terms in Q2 2023, lower than the contribution in the second quarter of 2022 and higher than the first quarter of 2023 which stood at 23.24% and 21.66% respectively. The Manufacturing sector is comprised of thirteen activities: Oil Refining; Cement; Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Textile, Apparel, and Footwear; Wood and Wood products; Pulp Paper and Paper products; Chemical and Pharmaceutical products; Non-metallic Products, Plastic and Rubber products; Electrical and Electronic; Basic Metal and Iron and Steel; Motor Vehicles and Assembly; and Other Manufacturing. Nominal GDP growth of the Manufacturing sector in the second quarter of 2023 was recorded at 29.90% (year-on-year), 24.69% points higher than the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2022 (5.21%) and 12.05% points higher than the preceding quarter figure of 17.85%. Quarter-on- quarter, growth of the sector was recorded at -5.76% during the quarter. The contribution of Manufacturing to Nominal GDP in the second quarter of 2023 was 14.55%, higher than the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2022 at 12.97% and lower than the first quarter of 2023 at 15.70%.
“Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector in the second quarter of 2023 was 2.20% (year-on- year), lower than the same quarter of 2022 and higher than the preceding quarter by 0.81% points and 0.59% points respectively. The growth rate of the sector on a quarter-on-quarter basis stood at – 14.98%. The Real contribution to GDP in the 2023 second quarter was 8.62%, lower than the 8.65% recorded in the second quarter of 2022 and lower than the 10.13% recorded in the first quarter of 2023”.
