In recent times, news and analysis of who becomes the next CBN governor has flooded the newsstand. Some of the analyses are informed while many others are just mere speculations and name-droppings. The appointment of a central bank governor in most parts of the world is both a political as well as economic decision. In making such appointments, the president considers the fellow on the basis of his political programme and such a nominee should have the ability to help the government realise its political and economic targets of full employment, low inflation, a fovourable balance of payment position and balanced growth.
A summary of the past nine indigenous CBN governors shows that five of them were from inside the CBN. Prior to their appointment, they had either served in various capacities in the bank, or board. At the moment, prominent and widely speculated among those said to be considered for appointment from outside the apex bank is the Access Bank CEO, Aig Agboje Imokhuede and the current Minister of Trade and Investment, Dr. Olusegun Aganga.
Yes, Dr. Aganga parades a tall qualification as well as wide local and international experience. But going by the disposition of government in the appointment of a CBN governor, Nigeria is not known to have appointed any former minister of finance, serving or retired as a CBN governor. The minister of finance or any serving minister is superior to the CBN governor in protocol. At any international forum, the minister is the leader of delegation and the governor takes instruction from him. It will be in the eyes of the public and international community that Nigeria rates its ministerial position low. That was the case in the military era when Nigeria called its officers Brigadiers while other countries were referring to theirs as Brigadier-General. It took some peacekeeping mission for the government and the military to learn the lesson of ranking an officer. It will amount to a demotion for a former minister or a serving minister to be appointed a CBN governor. In the days of the military, as powerful as Alhaji Abubarkar Alhaji was in the government of Babagida, his attempt to outstage Alhaji Abudukadir Ahmed as CBN governor did not succeed. The possibility of Aganga becoming the next CBN governor is quite slim except political consideration as usual plays its trick on Nigeria.
Many have also said that former Access Bank Managing Director is well favoured to become the man for the job. Mr. Aig Agboje Imokhuede of course is a banker, an investor who has substantial interest in the banking sector. As a lawyer manager, he is an astute businessman, a very determined person. Considering the fact that the job at hand is for a regulator as well as a banking supervisor, it may not be in government’s interest to appoint him as the next CBN governor. He is seen in government quarters as a beneficiary of the Sanusi largesse of the banking reforms in which his bank acquired Intercontinental Bank. Besides, he has vast interest in the banking sector. Many are of the view that he would easily have a conflict of interest and as such, the present government is not looking his way for the position.
Should the government decide to choose an insider from the board of the apex bank; the field of likely candidates is not as wide. This include erudite Professor of Economics, Professor Samuel Olofin, he represents the academia on the board, and was appointed in 2005. Next is Mr. Tunde Lemo, former chief executive officer of Wema Bank. He was appointed in 2004. Lemo by all standards is a competent and well-disposed and unassuming bank executive. He has gathered experience both as a commercial banker and a central banker. But what may count against him is the near collapse of Wema Bank that he left behind and the fact that while Sanusi held sway at the CBN, he was part of the Sanusi roller coaster. An insider may not be appropriate at this time given the fact that the current CBN management has embarrassed the government time and again in the past. His appointment as deputy governor is seen in government circles to have been made possible by former President Olusegun Obasanjo. With the political rift between Obasanjo and Jonathan, Lemo may be the grass that suffers when two elephants fight for no fault of his.
Another likely candidate is Dr (Mrs.) Sarah Alade, a female that seem to be favoured by current trend in the international banking community. She may be considered for the post given the fact that even a developed economy like the United States of America has recently, for the first time in 100 years of the Reserve Bank, appointed Ellen as its chairman. Sara Alade was appointed in 2007 to man the crucial position of Deputy Governor, Economic Policy. Apart from being an economist by training, with Master’s degree in Commerce and Doctorate degree in Management Science (Operations Research), she is the only board member who rose through the ranks of the apex bank. She has held major and sensitive positions in the bank. Should the government decide to look in her direction, she would become the first female governor of the CBN, and Nigeria would join the club of America, South Africa, Argentina, Botswana, Russia and other emerging economies, that have dared to entrust a woman with this very sensitive job.
The government should look beyond politics and consider the challenges of the job in choosing Sanusi’s successor. The government must avoid the embarrassment of a talkative CBN governor who speaks before thinking of the implication for the economy.
The president in considering any candidate should choose a technocrat, somebody with track performance, somebody who is not autocratic, not political, who does not have hidden interest in the industry. The need to consider sincerity, strength of character is very crucial in deciding who the next CBN boss becomes. It will be important to have a strong CBN governor, who will be ready to stand strong when things are not going well. He must have sincerity of purpose and must show strong economic understanding of the nation’s economy.
May be Dr. Okonjo-Iweala may have recommended yet another type of Professor Charles Soludo to Jonathan just as she did during the Obasanjo era to help shape policy in line with the transformation agenda.
