Value of goods and services produced in Nigeria grew by 3.98 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2021, indicating a sustained positive growth for the fifth quarter since the recession witnessed in 2020. According to the NBS, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 4.0% y/y in Q4:2021, bringing the full -year growth rate to 3.4% y/y fastest pace since 2014, beating IMF, Afrinvest, and World Bank projections of 3.0%, 3.0%, and 2.4% respectively. The growth was driven by the non -oil sector which expanded 4.4% y/y in FY:2021 (Q1: 0.8%, Q2: 6.7%, Q3: 5.4%, and Q4: 4.7%).
The non-oil sector growth was largely galvanised by the services sector with an average growth of 5.6% y/y and the agriculture sector at 2.1% y/y. Conversely, oil GDP extended its lacklustre performance to 7 successive quarters culminating in an 8.3% y/y contraction in FY:2021. In terms of contribution, oil GDP contribution fell to 7.2% (2020: 8.2%) while the non-oil contribution expanded to 92.8% (2020: 91.8%). This is according to the recently released GDP report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The Q4 2021 growth rate was higher than the 0.11% growth rate recorded in Q4 2020 by 3.87% points and lower than 4.03% recorded in Q3 2021 by 0.05% points. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the real GDP grew at 9.63% in Q4 2021 compared to Q3 2021, reflecting a higher economic activity than the preceding quarter.
Meanwhile, the real growth of the oil sector was –8.06% (year-on-year) in Q4 2021 indicating an increase by 11.71% points relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020. Growth increased by 2.68% points when compared to Q3 2021 which was –10.73%. Nigeria recorded an average daily oil production of 1.50 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q4 2021, lower than the daily average production of 1.56 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2020 by 0.06 mbpd and lower than the third quarter 2021 production volume of 1.57 mbpd On the other hand, the non-oil sector grew by 4.73% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q4 2021). This rate was higher by 3.05% point compared to the rate recorded same quarter of 2020 and 0.71% point lower than the third quarter of 2021.
This sector was driven in the fourth quarter of 2021 mainly by Agriculture (crop production); trade; Information and Communication (Telecommunication); and Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions), accounting for positive GDP growth. In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 94.81% to the nation’s GDP in fourth quarter 2021, higher from share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020 which was 94.13% and higher than the third quarter of 2021 recorded as 92.51%. The annual contribution in 2021 was 92.76%
