National Bureau of Statistics has said in its second quarter 2024 Gross Domestic Product GDP, report that services and industries sectors drove the nation’s gross domestic product to a real growth of 3.2 per cent. But growth is still well short of the 6 per cent targeted by President Bola Tinubu when he assumed office last year and has not impacted on the ordinary citizen who are now hit by hunger and food shortages. According to the NBS “the second quarter 2024 GDP figures showed that the economy grew by 3.19 per cent year on year compared to 2.51 per cent in the corresponding period of 2023. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the real GDP performance marked a modest 4 basis point improvement from first quarter of :2024. From a structural perspective, the GDP growth was jointly driven by oil and non-oil activities. The oil economy grew by 10.2 per cent annually, due mainly to low base year effect (the sector contracted by 13.3% in Q2:2023), despite a decline in daily average crude oil production to 1.41 mbpd in the quarter from 1.57 mbpd in Q1:2024. According to the NBS “For the non-oil economy, real growth weakened to 2.8 per cent year on year from 3.6 per cent in the corresponding period of 2023, owing to slower yearly expansion in agriculture (1.4% vs 1.5%) and services (3.8% vs 4.4%) sectors with a combined 81.4 per cent share of the economy. On a quarterly quarterly basis, the non-oil segment growth plateaued at 2.8 per cent. Meanwhile, the industries sector growth (up 3.5% y/y) outperformed the corresponding period in 2023 (-1.9%), supported mainly by the 10.0 per cent yearly expansion in the crude petroleum production segment”.
NBS in its report posted on its website said “The performance of the GDP in the second quarter of 2024 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 3.79 per cent and contributed 58.76 per cent to the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector grew by 1.41 per cent, from the growth of 1.50 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 2023. The growth of the industry sector was 3.53 per cent, an improvement from -1.94 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 2023. In terms of share of the GDP, the industry and services sectors contributed more to the aggregate GDP in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the corresponding quarter of 2023. In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP at basic price stood at N60,930,000.58 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the second quarter of 2023 which recorded aggregate GDP of N52,103,927.13 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 16.94 per cent. For better clarity, The nation in the second quarter of 2024 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.41 million barrels per day (mbpd), higher than the daily average production of 1.22 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2023 by 0.19 mbpd and lower than the first quarter of 2024 production volume of 1.57 mbpd by 0.16mbpd. The real growth of the oil sector was 10.15% (year-on-year) in Q2 2024, indicating an increase of 23.58% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2023 (-13.43%). Growth increased by 4.45% points when compared to Q1 2024 which was 5.70%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of -10.51% in Q2 2024. The Oil sector contributed 5.70% to the total real GDP in Q2 2024, up from the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2023 and down from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 5.34% and 6.38% respectively.
According to the report “The non-oil sector grew by 2.80% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q2 2024). This rate was lower by 0.78% points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2023 which was 3.58% and relatively same with the 2.80% recorded in the first quarter of 2024. This sector was driven in the second quarter of 2024 mainly by Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Information and Communication (Telecommunications); Agriculture (Crop production); Trade; and Manufacturing (Food, Beverage, and Tobacco), accounting for positive GDP growth. In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 94.30% to the nation’s GDP in the second quarter of 2024, lower than the share recorded in the second quarter of 2023 which was 94.66% and higher than the first quarter of 2024 recorded as 93.62%.
“The Mining & Quarrying sector consists of Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Metal ore and Quarrying and other Minerals sub-activities. This sector grew nominally by -0.37% (year-on-year) in Q2 2024. Metal Ores exhibited the highest growth rate of all the sub-activities at 62.37%, followed by Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas activity at 7.64%. Crude Petroleum and Natural gas was the main contributor to the sector with a weight of 92.70% in Q2 2024. Comparing Q2 2024’s rate of growth relative to Q2 2023 and Q1 2024 growth rates, there was an increase of 6.74% points and a decrease of 34.51% points respectively. The Mining & Quarrying sector contributed 5.60% to the overall GDP in the second quarter of 2024, lower than the contributions recorded in 2023 second quarter at 6.58% and lower than the previous quarter at 7.86%.
NBS said “In real terms, the Mining and Quarrying sector grew by 7.79% (year-on-year) in the second quarter of 2024. Compared to the same quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, it was higher by 19.95% points and higher by 1.48% points respectively. Quarter- on- quarter, the growth rate recorded was -9,87% during the quarter. The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to Real GDP in the quarter under review stood at 5.83%, higher than the rate of 5.58% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2023 and lower than the 6.47% recorded in the first quarter of 2024. Four sub-activities make up the Agricultural sector: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing. The sector grew by 2.86% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q2 2024, showing a decrease of 8.57% points from the same quarter of 2023. Looking at the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 0.77%, there was an increase of 2.09% points.
“Crop Production remained the major driver of the sector. This is evident as it accounts for 87.48% of the overall nominal value of the sector in the second quarter of 2024. Quarter-on-quarter growth stood at 11.41% in the second quarter of 2024. Agriculture contributed 18.54% to nominal GDP in the second quarter of 2024. This figure was lower than the rate recorded in the second quarter of 2023 and higher than the first quarter of 2024 which recorded 21.07% and 17.22% respectively. The agricultural sector in the second quarter of 2024 grew by 1.41% (year-on-year) in real terms, a decrease of 0.09% points from the corresponding period of 2023, and an increase of 1.22% points from the preceding quarter which recorded a growth rate of 0.18%. It grew on a quarter-on-quarter basis at 7.35%.
However, the sector contributed 22.61% to overall GDP in real terms in Q2 2024, lower than the contribution in the second quarter of 2023 and higher than the first quarter of 2024 which stood at 23.01% and 21.07% respectively.
“The Manufacturing sector is comprised of thirteen activities: Oil Refining; Cement; Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Textile, Apparel, and Footwear; Wood and Wood products; Pulp Paper and Paper products; Chemical and Pharmaceutical products; Non-metallic Products, Plastic and Rubber products; Electrical and Electronic; Basic Metal and Iron and Steel; Motor Vehicles and Assembly; and Other Manufacturing. Nominal GDP growth of the Manufacturing sector in the second quarter of 2024 was recorded at 1.91% (year-on-year), 27.99% points lower than the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2023 (29.90%) and 6.30% points lower than the preceding quarter figure of 8.21%. Quarter-on- quarter, growth of the sector was recorded at -11.25% during the quarter. The contribution of Manufacturing to Nominal GDP in the second quarter of 2024 was 12.68%, lower than the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2023 at 14.55% and lower than the first quarter of 2024 at 14.79%. Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector in the second quarter of 2024 was 1.28% (year-on- year), lower than the same quarter of 2023 and lower than the preceding quarter by 0.92% points and 0.22% points respectively. The growth rate of the sector on a quarter-on-quarter basis stood at – 15.16%. The Real contribution to GDP in the 2024 second quarter was 8.46%, lower than the 8.62% recorded in the second quarter of 2023 and lower than the 9.98% recorded in the first quarter of 2024”
