International Monetary Fund, IMF has said that crude oil exporters in sub-Saharan Africa should target buffers of around 5 to 10 per cent of gross domestic product to manage large swings in oil prices. It said that for many countries, this means they will need to maintain annual fiscal surpluses up to 1 percent per annum over a 10-year period. Nigeria has for a long time set up the excess crude account on which a dedicated sum above the budget benchmark for crude is saved. But over the years the account was drawn down by the government even when prices of crude oil are stable.
IMF said “as noted in our latest Regional Economic out look, oil prices have fluctuated from lows of $23 per barrel to a peak of $120 over the last two years, resulting in highly uncertain revenues in oil-dependent economies. However, most oil exporters in the region haven’t accumulated enough savings to insure against unpredictable oil price changes. In fact, sovereign wealth funds in sub-Saharan Africa hold assets of just 1.8 per cent of gross domestic product—compared to 72 per cent in the Middle East and North Africa—forcing countries to borrow or draw down financial assets when oil prices fall.
As a result, in the decade through 2020, the region’s oil producers have grown over 2 percentage points slower per year than non-resource intensive countries. Debt service costs have also been almost twice as high than in other sub-Saharan African countries. Moreover, as countries transition to low-carbon energy sources, oil revenues could sharply decline. By 2030, oil revenues in the region could fall by as much as a quarter and by 2050, by half. Building buffers now would help the region’s oil exporters navigate the transition toward clean energy while managing oil price fluctuations. Savings from Oil Revenues Could Help Africa’s Producers Manage Price Swings. It said that government should reduce debt and build financial buffer, create incentive for renewable energy transition and improve the business environment and strengthen governance and institutions
