Nigeria’s House of Representative has passed the medium-term expenditure framework for 2024-2026 with $73.66 per barrel crude oil benchmark in 2024, $73.76 in 2025 and $69.90 in 2026. It also based the estimate on an exchange rate of N700 per dollar 2024, N665.61 in 2025 and N669.79 in 2026. The Reps also based the framework estimate on 1.78 million crude oil production per day in 2024, 1.8 million in 2025 and 1.81 million per day in 2026 . The Reps used these sets of assumptions that will be used to prepare the country’s budget over the next three years.
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| Exchange rate (per $) | 700 naira | 665.61 naira | 669.79 naira |
| Oil production (per barrel) | 1.78 mln | 1.80 mln | 1.81 mln |
| Oil Price ($) | $73.96 | $73.76 | $69.90 |
| GDP growth | 3.76% | 4.22% | 4.78% |
| Inflation rate | 21.40% | 20.30% | 18.60% |
The document, which was agreed by President Bola Tinubu’s cabinet before going to the House of Representatives for approval, expects that the Naira currency to be around N700 per dollar next year before firming slightly in 2025 and 2026. The Naira last week briefly slumped to a record low of N1,105 against the dollar on the official market, bringing the official exchange rate within touching distance of the parallel market rate. The currency later recovered to around N800. The government is projecting a slight rise in crude production and gross domestic output growth, with a moderation in double-digit inflation.
The fiscal framework must also be passed by the upper chamber of parliament. Tinubu is also due to send the country’s 2024 spending plan of N26 trillion to parliament for approval.
