Oil prices rose in the global commodities markets on Wednesday due to concerns about potential supply interruptions caused by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the possibility of more stringent US sanctions on Russian oil. Meanwhile US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 to $67.80 per barrel from $67.22, while warning of sharp declines later in the year and into 2026. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook released late Tuesday, the EIA also revised up its 2025 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) projection to $64.16 per barrel from $63.58. Despite the upward revisions, Brent, which averaged $68 in August, is forecast to fall to $59.41 in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $49.97 in early 2026. The EIA said large inventory builds, driven by OPEC+ supply increases of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) from October, will pressure prices lower.
It expects global oil inventories to rise by more than 2 million bpd from Q3 2025 through early 2026.
Brent crude was trading at $66.85 per barrel, up 0.7% from the previous close of $66.38. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 0.7% to $62.95. The gains followed Israeli airstrikes on senior Hamas leaders in Doha, a move that Qatar denounced as “treacherous” and “state terrorism.” Qatar, alongside Egypt and the US, has been mediating a Gaza cease-fire after Israel’s war killed more than 64,000 Palestinians since October 2023. Geopolitical risks added to market jitters after Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine since the start of the war, setting fire to a government building in Kyiv. Meanwhile, trade tensions between the US and India persisted. Trump announced Tuesday that negotiations continue to address barriers between the two countries, following Washington’s decision in August to impose tariffs of up to 50% on Indian imports in retaliation for New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil. Investors turned their attention to US inventory data, which pointed to weaker demand. The American Petroleum Institute reported a crude stock build of 1.25 million barrels for the week ending September 5, compared with expectations for a 622,000-barrel rise. Concerns over new sanctions on Russia further supported prices after Moscow launched its largest air assault on Ukraine since the war began, setting fire to a government building in Kyiv. US President Donald Trump said Sunday he is prepared to implement a new phase of sanctions following the overnight attacks that killed four people and injured dozens. The European Union’s sanctions envoy was also in Washington to discuss further measures with US officials. Market watchers noted that additional restrictions could further tighten Russian crude supplies, lending support to oil prices.
Low prices in early 2026 are expected to reduce output from OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, which would slow inventory growth later in the year. On this basis, the agency projects Brent to average $51 per barrel in 2026, while warning of significant uncertainty in its outlook.
“Although we do not currently forecast any major supply disruptions, risks to oil supply remain. The ongoing tensions and negotiations related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could affect supply, while further sanctions could be enacted,” the agency noted. Additionally, ongoing trade negotiations and legal challenges related to tariffs between the US and its trading partners could affect economic and oil demand growth, with implications for oil prices, according to EIA. The EIA also pointed to trade disputes and tariff-related legal challenges as possible risks to global economic and oil demand growth, which could further influence prices. It added that OPEC+ could reconsider its production policy in response to a sustained oversupply. US crude output is expected to average 13.44 million bpd in 2025 and 13.30 million bpd in 2026, compared to 13.23 million bpd last year. Global oil supply is forecast to average 105.54 million bpd in 2025 and 106.64 million bpd in 2026, while global demand is projected at 103.81 million bpd in 2025 and 105.09 million bpd in 2026.
Oil prices rise, EIA upgrades brent crude price projection for 2025
