Nigeria’s manufacturing and trade sectors posted strong momentum in October 2025, showing a surge in business sentiment and activity across key industries. This is according to data from the National Economic Summit Group (NESG)-Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM), a survey-based report that presents qualitative information on current business sentiment within the Nigerian economy and gauges expectations about overall economic activities in the short term.mReleased on Tuesday, NESG explained that results contained in the report are based on business managers’ assessments of current performance and optimism regarding key leading economic and business indicators such as investment, prices, demand conditions and employment. The business confidence monitor said that business sentiment strengthened across key sectors; manufacturing, trade, non-manufacturing, services, and agriculture, driven by improved activity and rising confidence among firms.
According to the document, “Nigeria’s business environment in October 2025 showed a moderate yet notable improvement compared to September 2025 and the same period in 2024.” Providing further month-on-month detail on the performance metrics, the report said the Current Business Performance Index rose to 111.3 index points in October, up 3.4 points from 107.9 recorded in September 2025. On a year-on-year basis, Vanguard’s analysis of the report shows that the current business performance index in October 2024 stood at 76.8 index points, while that of October 2025 stood at 111.3, indicating a 34.5-point improvement.
Despite the improved sentiment, operators continued to battle structural bottlenecks hampering business expansion. The authors pointed to critical drag factors, noting that, “Major constraints to business growth during the month included limited access to finance, high rental costs, policy uncertainty, poor power supply, and insecurity.” Looking ahead, the survey also assessed outlook indicators for future expectations. “The Future Business Expectation Index declined slightly to 132.9 points in October 2025, from 134.5 points in September 2025 and 98.0 points in October 2024, reflecting sustained optimism about future business conditions,” it said.
Despite the marginal decline, sentiment remains broadly upbeat, with expectations of a better business climate, higher operating profits, increased production levels, stronger cash flow, improved supply orders and rising demand. Trends varied across economic segments within September and October. A sectoral review showed that all five broad economic activities remained in the expansion region. In October, the Manufacturing Business Performance Index rose to 111.3 points from 102.5 in September, indicating an 8.8-point rise in business confidence.
“This improvement was largely driven by a rebound in key sub-sectors such as Food, Beverage, and Tobacco, and Cement, which had contracted in the previous month. According to surveyed businesses, the improved performance stemmed from relatively stable power supply, better access to finance, modest stability in foreign exchange, and improved navigation of policy and regulatory uncertainties during the month,” the report emphasised.
Similarly, the Trade Business Performance Index expanded to 115.4 points in October, signalling a 7.8-point gain from 107.6 recorded in September.
The survey noted that the trade sector recorded stronger performance during the month, supported by the general improvement in Nigeria’s broader economy and a relatively stable exchange rate.
However, the business confidence monitor said structural challenges persist, with recurring bottlenecks constraining growth. “Insecurity in key markets, frequent supply chain disruptions, and enduring structural weaknesses continue to pose significant obstacles, weighing heavily on trade operations and limiting the sector’s overall potential. These combined factors contributed to the observed moderation in trade momentum,” it said. The agricultural sector rose to 111.4 points in October, reflecting a 4.1-point increase from 107.3 points recorded in September. Also, the Business Performance Index for the services sector recorded 111.0 points in October, indicating a 2.5-point expansion from 108.5 recorded in September. According to the report, the non-manufacturing sector Business Performance Index showed a slight rise to 115.0 points in October, a 0.5-point improvement from 114.5 recorded the previous month.
