National Bureau of Statistics has said that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.03 per cent in real terms in the third quarter of 2021, showing a sustained positive growth over the last four quarters since the recession witnessed in 2020. According to NBS latest report “Output contracted by -6.10 per cent and -3.62 per cent in Q2 and Q3 of 2020 under the Covid pandemic. The Q3 2021 growth rate was higher than the -3.62 per cent growth rate recorded in Q3 2020 by 7.65 per cent points and lower than 5.01 per cent recorded in Q2 2021 by 0.98 per cent points, indicative of a continuous recovery. Nevertheless, quarter on quarter, real GDP grew at 11.07% in Q3 2021 compared to Q2 2021, reflecting a higher economic activity than the preceding quarter. In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N45,113,448.06 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the third quarter of 2020 which recorded aggregate GDP of N39,089,460.61 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 15.41 per cent. The nominal GDP growth rate in Q3 2021 was higher relative to 3.39 per cent growth recorded in the third quarter of 2020 as well as the 14.99 per cent growth recorded in the preceding quarter. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors”.
NBS further said that “The nation in the third quarter of 2021 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.57 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.67mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2020 by 0.10mbpd and lower than the second quarter 2021 production volume of 1.61mbpd by 0.05mbpd. (Figure2). Real growth of the oil sector was –10.73% (year-on-year) in Q3 2021 indicating an increase by 3.16% points relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020. Growth increased by 1.92% points when compared to Q2 2021 which was –12.65%. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 12.05% in Q3 2021. The Oil sector contributed 7.49% to total real GDP in Q3 2021, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 and up compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 8.73% and 7.42% respectively.
“The non-oil sector grew by 5.44 per cent in real terms during the reference quarter (Q3 2021). This rate was higher by 7.95% point compared to the rate recorded same quarter of 2020 and 1.30% point lower than the second quarter of 2021. This sector was driven in third quarter 2021 mainly by trade, Information and Communication (Telecommunication); other drivers include Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco); Agriculture (Crop Production); and Transportation and Storage (Road Transport), accounting for positive GDP growth. In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 92.51 per cent to the nation’s GDP in third quarter 2021, higher from share recorded in the third quarter of 2020 which was 91.27% and lower than the second quarter of 2021 recorded as 92.58%.
“The Mining & Quarrying sector consists of Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Metal ore and Quarrying and other Minerals sub-activities. This sector grew nominally by –4.65% (year on year) in Q3 2021. Metal Ores exhibited the highest growth rate of all the sub-activities at 75.63%, followed by Quarrying and Other Minerals activity at 42.79%. However, Crude Petroleum and Natural gas was the main contributor to the sector with a weight of 89.65% in Q3 2021. Comparing Q3 2021’s rate of growth against the Q3 2020 and Q2 2021 growth rates, there was a rise of 15.27% points and a rise of 2.07% points respectively. The Mining & Quarrying sector contributed 6.32% to overall GDP in the third quarter of 2021, lower than the contributions recorded in 2020 third quarter at 7.65% but higher than the previous quarter recorded at 6.30%. In real terms, the Mining and Quarrying sector grew by –10.56% (year-on-year) in the third quarter of 2021. Compared to the same quarter of 2020 and second quarter 2021, it was higher by 2.66% points and higher by 1.73% points respectively. Quarter on quarter, growth rate recorded was 12.27%. The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to Real GDP in the quarter under review stood at 7.66%, lower than the rate of 8.91% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020 and higher than the 7.58% recorded in the second quarter of 2021 respectively.
“Four sub-activities make up the Agricultural sector: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing. The sector grew by 7.95% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q3 2021, showing a fall of 5.57% points from the same quarter of 2020. Looking at the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 6.36%, there was an increase of 1.59% points. Crop Production remained the major driver of the sector. This is evident as it accounts for 87.32% of overall nominal growth of the sector in third quarter 2021. Quarter on Quarter growth stood at 38.48% in third quarter 2021. Agriculture contributed 26.57% to nominal GDP in the third quarter of 2021. This figure was lower than the rate recorded for the third quarter of 2020 and higher than the second quarter of 2021 which recorded 28.41% and 22.13% respectively. The agricultural sector in the third quarter of 2021 grew by 1.22% (year-on-year) in real terms, a decrease of 0.17% points from the corresponding period of 2020, and a decrease of 0.08% points from the preceding quarter which recorded a growth rate of 1.30%. It grew on a quarter-on – quarter basis at 39.83%. However, the sector contributed 29.94% to overall GDP in real terms in Q3 2021, lower than the contribution in the third quarter of 2020 and higher than the second quarter of 2021 which stood at 30.77% and 23.78% respectively.
“The Manufacturing sector is comprised of thirteen activities: Oil Refining; Cement; Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Textile, Apparel, and Footwear; Wood and Wood products; Pulp Paper and Paper products; Chemical and Pharmaceutical products; Non-metallic Products, Plastic and Rubber products; Electrical and Electronic; Basic Metal and Iron and Steel; Motor Vehicles and Assembly; and Other Manufacturing. Nominal GDP growth of the Manufacturing sector in the third quarter of 2021 was recorded at 32.73% (year-on-year), 19.18% points higher than figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 (13.54%) and 5.60% points lower than the preceding quarter figure of 38.33%. Quarter on Quarter growth of the sector was recorded at 26.78%. The contribution of Manufacturing to Nominal GDP in third quarter 2021 was 15.59%, higher than figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 at 13.56% and higher than the second quarter of 2021 at 14.18%. Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector in the third quarter of 2021 was 4.29% (year on year), higher than the same quarter of 2020 and higher than the preceding quarter by 5.80% points and 0.08% points respectively. Growth rate of the sector on a quarter-on-quarter basis stood at 14.40%. Real contribution to GDP in 2021 third quarter was 8.96%, higher than the 8.93% recorded in third quarter of 2020 and higher than the 8.69% recorded in second quarter 2021.
“The Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air conditioning Supply sector recorded a year-on-year growth of 43.14% in the third quarter of 2021. This was 43.15% points higher than the -0.01% growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020, and 71.16% points lower than the growth rate of 114.30% recorded in the quarter before. Quarter–on-Quarter, the sector recorded a growth rate of -42.40% in Q3 2021. The contribution of Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply to Nominal GDP in third quarter 2021 was 0.86%, higher than the contribution made in the corresponding quarter of 2020 at 0.69% and lower with its contribution of 1.72% in the quarter before. In real terms, the sector grew by 14.36% in Q3 2021, an improvement from the growth rate of – 3.66% recorded in the same quarter of 2020. When compared to the immediate past quarter, there was a decrease of 63.80% points from 78.16% recorded. Quarter-on-Quarter, the sector grew at a rate of -45.00%. The contribution of this sector to real GDP in third quarter 2021 was 0.40%, higher than 0.36% recorded in Q3 2020. This figure in 2021 was lower than 0.80% recorded in Q2 2021.
“The Construction sector grew by 47.67% in nominal terms (year on year) in 2021 third quarter, a rise by 12.17% points compared to the rate of 35.50% recorded in the same quarter of 2020. There was an increase of 0.56% points when compared to the rate recorded in the preceding quarter. Nominal growth quarter on quarter was recorded at 22.20%. Construction contributed 9.26% to nominal GDP in the third quarter of 2021, higher than the 7.23% it contributed a year earlier and higher than the 8.74% contributed in the second quarter of 2021. The real growth rate of the construction sector in the third quarter of 2021 was recorded at 4.10% (year on year), higher by 1.25% points from the rate recorded a year previous. Relative to the preceding quarter, there was an increase of 0.40% points. Quarter on quarter, the sector grew by 11.97% in real terms, higher than the 11.54% it recorded in third quarter 2020. Its contribution to total real GDP was 3.22% in the third quarter 2021; higher from its contribution of 3.21% in the same quarter of the previous year, and higher than in the immediate past quarter where it contributed 3.19%.
“In the third quarter of 2021, the nominal year on year growth rate of Trade stood at 14.84%. This indicates an increase of 24.66% points when compared to the third quarter of 2020 growth rate of -9.82% and 8.43% points lower than the previous quarter growth rate of 23.27%. The quarter-on- quarter growth rate was 2.22%. Trade’s contribution to Nominal GDP in the third quarter of 2021 was 12.75%, lower than the contribution in the same quarter of the previous year of 12.81%, and lower than the preceding quarter recorded at 14.38%. In real terms, Trade’s year-on-year growth stood at 11.90% in third quarter 2021, which was 24.03% points higher than the rate recorded one year previous at -12.12%, and 10.59% points lower than in the preceding quarter at 22.49% growth rate. Quarter on quarter growth stood at -0.41%. This growth was lower than the quarter-on-quarter growth recorded in the third quarter of 2020 at 9.01%. Trade’s contribution to GDP was 14.93%, higher than the 13.88% it represented in the previous year, and lower than the 16.66% recorded in 2021 second quarter.
“In nominal terms, Accommodation and Food Services grew by 19.20% year -on- year in 2021 third quarter. This represents an increase of 28.84% points relative to the same quarter of 2020, when the growth rate was -9.64%. Growth was higher than the preceding quarter by 0.13% points when growth was 19.07%. Quarter on quarter growth stood at 99.64%. Accommodation and Food Services contribution to nominal GDP stood at 0.86% in third quarter 2021, higher slightly than the figure recorded a year previous and higher than second quarter 2021 contribution recorded at 0.83% and 0.49% respectively. The real year-on-year growth rate for this sector in 2021 third quarter stood at 2.09%, higher by 24.70% points from -22.61% recorded a year previous. Relative to the preceding quarter, growth rate was 0.11% points higher from 1.97% recorded. Quarter on quarter real growth was 92.05%. The sector in third quarter of 2021 represented 0.69% of the real GDP, which is lower slightly with the contribution of 0.70% recorded in the third quarter of 2020 and higher than the second quarter 2021 contribution of 0.40%”.
