Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.74% in 2023, a slight drop from the 3.10% growth recorded in 2022. According to a report signed by Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, Statistician-General National Bureau of Statistics, the figure was the slowest growth rate since 2020 when the economy recovered from recession. The services sector was the major driver of the economy in 2023 growing by 3.98 per cent, but contributed 56.55% to the total GDP. He said that agriculture, which used to be the mainstay of the economy, grew from 2.05 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 2.10 per cent in the same quarter of 2023. He said “Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.46% (year-on-year) in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2023. This growth rate is lower than the 3.52% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022 and higher than the third quarter of 2023 growth of 2.54%. The performance of the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 3.98% and contributed 56.55% to the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector grew by 2.10%, from the growth of 2.05% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022. The growth of the industry sector was 3.86%, an improvement from -0.94% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022. In terms of share of the GDP, industry, and the services sectors contributed more to the aggregate GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. On an annual basis, GDP grew by 2.74% in 2023 relative to 3.10% in 2022.
“In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N65,908,258.59 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 which recorded aggregate GDP of N56,757,889.95 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 16.12%. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors. The nation in the fourth quarter of 2023 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.55 million barrels\ per day (mbpd), higher than the daily average production of 1.34mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2022 by 0.21mbpd and higher than the third quarter of 2023 production volume of 1.45 mbpd by 0.10mbpd.
The real growth of the oil sector was 12.11% (year-on-year) in Q4 2023, indicating an increase of 25.50% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2022 (-13.38%). Growth also increased by 12.96% points when compared to Q3 2023 which was –0.85%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of -3.81% in Q4 2023. On an annual basis, the oil sector growth stood at -2.22% in 2023 compared to -19.22% in 2022. The Oil sector contributed 4.70% to the total real GDP in Q4 2023, up from the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2022 and down from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 4.34% and 5.48% respectively.
“The non-oil sector grew by 3.07% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q4 2023). This rate was lower by 1.37% points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2022 and 0.32% points higher than the third quarter of 2023. This sector was driven in the fourth quarter of 2023 mainly by Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Information and Communication (Telecommunication); Agriculture (Crop production); Trade; Construction; Manufacturing (Food, Beverage, and Tobacco) and Real Estate, accounting for positive GDP growth. On an annual basis, the non-oil sector growth in 2023 stood at 3.04% relative to 4.84% recorded in 2022. In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 95.30% to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023, lower than the share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022 which was 95.66% and higher than the third quarter of 2023 recorded as 94.52%.
“The Mining & Quarrying sector consists of Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Metal ore and Quarrying and other Minerals sub-activities. This sector grew nominally by 15.07%(year-on-year) in Q4 2023. Metal Ores exhibited the highest growth rate of all the sub-activities at 27.14%, followed by Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas activity at 22.55%. Crude Petroleum and Natural gas was the main contributor to the sector with a weight of 70.17% in Q4 2023. Comparing Q4 2023’s rate of growth relative to Q4 2022 and Q3 2023 growth rates, there was an increase of 16.14% points and a decrease of 16.83% points respectively. The annual growth of the sector stood at 8.92% in 2023 relative to 27.11% in 2022. The Mining & Quarrying sector contributed 4.47% to the overall GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023, lower than the contributions recorded in 2022 fourth quarter at 4.51% and lower than the previous quarter at 8.32%.
In real terms, the Mining and Quarrying sector grew by 8.04% (year-on-year) in the fourth quarter of 2023. “Compared to the same quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2023, it was higher by 19.43% points and higher by 10.01% points respectively. Quarter- on- quarter, the growth rate recorded was -2.38% during the quarter. In addition, annual growth of the sector in 2023 was -2.84%, higher than -18.16% in 2022. The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to Real GDP in the quarter under review stood at 4.91%, higher than the rate of 4.71% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2022 and lower than the 5.64% recorded in the third quarter of 2023. Four sub-activities make up the Agricultural sector: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing. The sector grew by 14.94% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q4 2023, showing a decrease of 3.74% points from the same quarter of 2022. Looking at the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 11.06%, there was an increase of 3.88% points. Crop Production remained the major driver of the sector. This is evident as it accounts for 90.03% of the overall nominal value of the sector in the fourth quarter of 2023. Quarter-on-quarter growth stood at 1.62% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Agriculture contributed 24.65% to nominal GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023. This figure was lower than the rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022 and lower than the third quarter of 2023 which recorded 24.90% and 26.36% respectively.
“The agricultural sector in the fourth quarter of 2023 grew by 2.10% (year-on-year) in real terms, an increase of 0.06% points from the corresponding period of 2022, and an increase of 0.81% points from the preceding quarter which recorded a growth rate of 1.30%. It grew on a quarter-on-quarter basis at -0.22%. On an annual basis, the agriculture sector grew by 1.13% in 2023, down from 1.88% in 2022. However, the sector contributed 26.11% to overall GDP in real terms in Q4 2023, lower than the contribution in the fourth quarter of 2022 and lower than the third quarter of 2023 which stood at 26.46% and 29.31% respectively. The Manufacturing sector is comprised of thirteen activities: Oil Refining; Cement; Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Textile, Apparel, and Footwear; Wood and Wood products; Pulp Paper and Paper products; Chemical and Pharmaceutical products; Non-metallic Products, Plastic and Rubber products; Electrical and Electronic; Basic Metal and Iron and Steel; Motor Vehicles and Assembly; and Other Manufacturing. Nominal GDP growth of the Manufacturing sector in the fourth quarter of 2023 was recorded at 38.06% (year-on-year), 29.20% points higher than the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2022 (8.86%) and 1.47% points higher than the preceding quarter figure of 36.59%. Quarter-on-quarter, growth of the sector was recorded at 7.70% during the quarter. On an annual basis, the sector grew by 30.93% in 2023 compared to 6.93% in 2022.
The contribution of Manufacturing to Nominal GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 was 16.04%, higher than the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2022 at 13.49% and lower than the third quarter of 2023 at 16.18%. Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector in the fourth quarter of 2023 was 1.38% (year-on-year), lower than the same quarter of 2022 and higher than the preceding quarter by 1.46% points and 0.90% points respectively. The growth rate of the sector on a quarter-on-quarter basis stood at 9.54%. On an annual basis, the sector grew by 1.40% in 2023, lower than 2.45% in 2022. The Real contribution to GDP in the 2023 fourth quarter was 8.23%, lower than the 8.40% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022 and lower than the 8.42% recorded in the third quarter of 2023”.
