The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.87 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the first quarter (Q1) of 2020. The NBS said this in its GDP Quarterly Report. It said that this performance was recorded against the backdrop of significant global disruptions resulting from the COVID-19 public health crisis. It also said that there was a sharp fall in oil prices and restricted international trade adding that the performance recorded in Q1 which represented a drop of –0.23 per cent points compared to Q1 2019 and –0.68 per cent points compared to Q4 2019, reflecting the earliest effects of the disruption, particularly on the non-oil economy. The growth rate is far lower than the population growth rate of 3 per cent. This implies that the growth rate is not keeping pace with that of population in the country drive to reduce the rate of poverty and unemployment. The growth rate need to be faster than the rate of population growth.
According to the report, Nigeria’s oil sector recorded a real growth rate of 5.06% (year-on-year) in Q1 2020, indicating an increase of 6.51% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (-1.46%). However, when compared to Q4 2019 which recorded a growth rate of 6.36%, oil sector growth decreased by –1.30% points. The contribution of the Oil sector to aggregate GDP stood at 9.50% in Q1 2020, up from figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2019 (9.22%) and the preceding quarter (7.32%), as the share of the non-oil economy declined.
During the first quarter of 2020, an average daily oil production of 2.07 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded. The production level was higher than the 1.99mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2019. The non-oil sector grew by 1.55% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q1 2020), this was slower by -0.93% points compared to the rate recorded during the same quarter of 2019 (2.47%), and –0.72% points slower than the fourth quarter of 2019 (2.26%). According to the NBS’s growth in non-oil sector was driven mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunications), Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions), Agriculture (Crop Production), Mining and Quarrying (Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas), and Construction.
In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 90.5 per cent to the nation’s GDP in the first quarter of 2020, less than its share in the first quarter of 2019 which was 90.78 per cent and the fourth quarter of 2019 recorded as 92.68 per cent. Activities that witnessed weaker performance relative to Q1 2019 include Quarrying, Road transport, Accommodation and Food services as well as real estate.
Nigeria’s service sector showed strong resilient in the period under review as it contributed 54.39 per cent to the aggregate GDP, up from 53.64 per cent recorded in Q4 2019. Also, the industrial sector recorded a marginal increase in its contribution to GDP at 23.65 per cent, up from 22.25 per cent in Q4 2019. Meanwhile, the contribution from agriculture sector contracted to 21.96 per cent from 25.16% in the previous quarter. Contraction in the agric. Sector maybe largely traceable to the planting season.
The NBS GDP report shows that 1.87 per cent growth recorded in Q1 2020 represents the slowest in the last 6 quarters (2018 Q4 – 2020 Q1). In Q4 2018, GDP growth rose to 2.38 per cent as the economy continued its slow recovery from the 2016 recession. The slow growth momentum had been sustained through the subsequent quarters until the latest contraction which is attributable to disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and oil price. GDP is Nigeria’s biggest economic data and it measures the monetary value of goods and services produced in the country.
