National Bureau of Statistics has said that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.98 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2024. It said “This growth rate is higher than the 2.31% recorded in the first quarter of 2023 and lower than the fourth quarter of 2023 growth of 3.46%. The performance of the GDP in the first quarter of 2024 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 4.32% and contributed 58.04% to the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector grew by 0.18 per cent, from the growth of -0.90% recorded in the first quarter of 2023. The growth of the industry sector was 2.19%, an improvement from 0.31% recorded in the first quarter of 2023. In terms of share of the GDP, the services sector contributed more to the aggregate GDP in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the corresponding quarter of 2023”.
Nigeria’s economy kicked off 2024 with a modest growth of 2.98% year-on-year GDP growth in the first quarter. This upbeat note trumps the same period in 2023, which saw a 2.31% rise. However, it’s not all roses, as this pace lags behind the robust 3.46% growth of Q4 2023. The star of this economic story is the service sector, which grew by 4.32%, contributing a significant 58.04% of the GDP. This growth was driven by increased activities in trade, transportation, and communication. Unlike Q1 2023, which suffered from a cash crunch, Q1 2024 faced no such issues, allowing economic activities to flourish. The Purchasing Manager Index showed an improvement, with January’s index rising to 54.5, the highest in 13 months, though it declined to 51.1 in March. In contrast, the agricultural sector, crucial to Nigeria’s economy, struggled. Although it avoided the negative growth of Q1 2023 (-0.90%), it only achieved a modest 0.18% expansion.
On the brighter side, nominal GDP—the total value of goods and services produced—hit N58,855 billion in Q1 2024, marking a hefty 14.86% year-on-year increase compared to Q1 2023. This suggests a mix of real growth and some price inflation. In summary, Nigeria’s Q1 2024 GDP growth is a mixed bag. The service sector is carrying the day, and nominal GDP is up, but the agricultural sector is limping along, and growth has slowed from the previous quarter. While the year-on-year growth points to a strengthening economy, the uneven performance across sectors calls for a closer watch. The real growth of the oil sector was 5.70% (year-on-year) in Q1 2024, indicating an increase of 9.91% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2023 (-4.21%). Growth decreased by 6.41% points when compared to Q4 2023 which was 12.11%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 13.77% in Q1 2024.
According to NBS “The Oil sector contributed 6.38% to the total real. The non-oil sector grew by 2.80% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q1 2024). This rate was higher by 0.02% points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2023 and 0.28% points lower than the fourth quarter of 2023. This sector was driven in the first quarter of 2024 mainly by Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Information and Communication (Telecommunications); Agriculture (Crop production); Trade; and Manufacturing (Food, Beverage, and Tobacco), accounting for positive GDP growth. In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 93.62% to the nation’s GDP in the first quarter of 2024, lower than the share recorded in the first quarter of 2023 which was 93.79% and lower than the fourth quarter of 2023 recorded as 95.30%.
“The Mining & Quarrying sector consists of Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Metal ore and Quarrying and other Minerals sub-activities. This sector grew nominally by 34.14% (year-on-year) in Q1 2024. Metal Ores exhibited the highest growth rate of all the sub-activities at 220.87%, followed by Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas activity at 33.23%. Crude Petroleum and Natural gas was the main contributo to the sector with a weight of 98.45% in Q1 2024. Comparing Q1 2024’s rate of growth relative to Q1 2023 and Q4 2023 growth rates, there was an increase of 37.66% points and a rise of 19.07% points respectively. The Mining & Quarrying sector contributed 7.86% to the overall GDP in the first quarter of 2024, higher than the contributions recorded in 2023 first quarter at 6.73% and higher than the previous quarter at 4.47%.
In real terms, the Mining and Quarrying sector grew by 6.30% (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2024. Compared to the same quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2023, it was higher by 10.26% points and lower by 1.74% points respectively. Quarter- on- quarter, the growth rate recorded was 10.45% during the quarter. The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to Real GDP in the quarter under review stood at 6.47%, higher than the rate of 6.26% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2023 and higher than the 4.91% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023. Four sub-activities make up the Agricultural sector: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing. The sector grew by 0.77% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q1 2024, showing a decrease of 4.47% points from the same quarter of 2023. Looking at the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 14.94%, there was a decrease of 14.17% points. Crop Production remained the major driver of the sector. This is evident as it accounts for 87.98% of the overall nominal value of the sector in the first quarter of 2024. Quarter-on-quarter growth stood at -37.60% in the first quarter of 2024. “Agriculture contributed 17.22% to nominal GDP in the first quarter of 2024. This figure was lower than the rate recorded in the first quarter of 2023 and lower than the fourth quarter of 2023 which recorded 19.63% and 24.65% respectively. The agricultural sector in the first quarter of 2024 grew by 0.18% (year-on-year) in real terms, an increase of 1.08% points from the corresponding period of 2023, and a decrease of 1.92% points from the preceding quarter which recorded a growth rate of 2.10%. It grew on a quarter-on-quarter basis at -32.25%. However, the sector contributed 21.07% to overall GDP in real terms in Q1 2024, lower than the contribution in the first quarter of 2023 and lower than the fourth quarter of 2023 which stood at 21.66% and 26.11% respectively.
“The Manufacturing sector is comprised of thirteen activities: Oil Refining; Cement; Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Textile, Apparel, and Footwear; Wood and Wood products; Pulp Paper and Paper products; Chemical and Pharmaceutical products; Non-metallic Products, Plastic and Rubber products; Electrical and Electronic; Basic Metal and Iron and Steel; Motor Vehicles and Assembly; and Other Manufacturing. Nominal GDP growth of the Manufacturing sector in the first quarter of 2024 was recorded at 8.21% (year-on-year), 9.64% points lower than the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2023 (17.85%) and 29.85% points lower than the preceding quarter figure of 38.06%. Quarter-on- quarter, growth of the sector was recorded at -17.67% during the quarter. The contribution of Manufacturing to Nominal GDP in the first quarter of 2024 was 14.79%, lower than the figure recorded in then corresponding period of 2023 at 15.70% and lower than the fourth quarter of 2023 at 16.04%. Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector in the first quarter of 2024 was 1.49% (year-on-year), lower than the same quarter of 2023 and higher than the preceding quarter by 0.12% points and 0.12% points respectively. The growth rate of the sector on a quarter-on-quarter basis stood at 1.74%. The Real contribution to GDP in the 2024 first quarter was 9.98%, lower than the 10.13% recorded in the first quarter of 2023 and higher than the 8.23% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023.
