National Bureau of Statistics has said that Nigeria’s crude oil export rose to a record N11.53 trillion in the first half of 2022, an 88.5% rise compared to N6.12 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2021 and a 39% increase from N8.29 trillion in H2 2021. The rise in the Naira value can be explained in terms of the continued depreciation of the Naira. According to the NBS The All-commodity group export price index averagely also increased by 0.18% in Q2 2022. The increase was majorly attributed to an increase in the prices of “Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles”, “Paper making material; paper and paperboard, articles”, and “Plastic, rubber and articles thereof”. The All products terms of trade (TOT) index on average did increase by 0.11% as a result of increases in the prices of “Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles”, “Paper making material; paper and paperboard”, and “Miscellaneous manufactured articles”. The All-region group export index also increased by 0.18% mainly due to rise in prices of export to all regions except America.
The All-region group import index increased by 0.07% due to changes in import prices to some of the regions. The All-region terms of trade on average increased by 0.11% due to rise in export prices to all the regions compared to the rise in import prices from all the regions. The major export and import markets of Nigeria in Q2, 2022 were India, Spain, The Netherlands, The United States of America, Indonesia and China.
Nigeria’s crude oil export accounted for 79.5% of the total exports recorded in the review period, representing the highest since the first half of 2019. Specifically, Nigeria exported merchandise between January and June 2022 worth N14.51 trillion, an increase of 81.2% recorded in the same period of 2021. Non-crude oil export during the period stood at N2.98 trillion, which is 57.6% higher than the N1.89 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2021, and a 12.2% increase from N2.98 trillion recorded in the second half of last year. Nigeria’s crude oil export earnings surged despite the decline in daily production. According to the NBS, daily crude oil production averaged 1.43mbpd and 1.49mbpd in Q2 and Q1 2022 respectively, the lowest on record. However, the improvement in crude export earnings was due to the significant rally in the price of crude oil following the war between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022. The price of crude oil maintained a bullish stance in the first half of the year, trading at over $125 per barrel for the most part of the period.
A development, which saw Nigeria’s earnings skyrocket despite a drop in volume. This would have been more if production had improved. However, it was enough to produce a positive trade balance of N3.17 trillion in the review period. Although, it is worth noting that crude oil prices have settled below the $100 per barrel mark, which could affect Nigeria’s crude oil earnings in the later part of the year.
