Nigeria’s oil exports will reach their highest in six months in November, led in part by an increase in supply of the country’s four largest crude grades, according to loading programmes. Total loadings of Nigerian crude will rise to 1.876 million barrels per day in November, from October’s 1.652 million bpd. November’s will be the largest loading programme since May this year and is 17 percent higher than last November’s 1.598 million bpd export schedule.
The export plan comprises 59 cargoes, unchanged from October and includes one cargo of Akpo condensate. Exports of Forcados, Bonga, Bonny Light and Qua Iboe will rise to 822,967 bpd in November, from a planned 728,258 bpd in October. This will be the largest export programme for the four since June’s 873,000 bpd. The Agbami stream will add another cargo in November, while supply of the smaller grades will remain broadly unchanged.
France’s Total launched its Egina offshore field this week, which is expected to come online by December and add another 100,000 bpd to Nigeria’s crude and condensate output by the end of the year, according to Malam Mele Kyari, head of crude oil marketing at Nigeria’s state oil firm NNPC. Production from Egina, an ultra deepwater field, is expected to rise to 200,000 bpd. Nigerian oil export plans are prone to revisions and delays, with cargoes frequently pushed from one month to the next.
Meanwhile Saudi Arabia said it will quietly add extra oil to the market over the next couple of months to offset a drop in Iranian production but is worried it might need to limit output next year to balance global supply and demand as the United States pumps more crude. The kingdom, OPEC’s top producer, came under renewed pressure last week from U.S. President Donald Trump to cool oil prices ahead of a meeting in Algiers between a number of OPEC ministers and allies including Russia.
Two sources familiar with OPEC policy said Saudi Arabia and other producers discussed a possible production increase of about 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) among the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC allies. But Riyadh decided against pressing for an official increase now as it realised it would not secure agreement from all producers present at the talks, some of which lack spare production capacity and would be unable to boost output quickly.
Such a move would have unsettled relations among producers, the sources said, with the Saudis keen to maintain unity among the so-called OPEC+ alliance in case Riyadh wants to change course in future and seek their collaboration on an output cut. “There are only two months left until the end of the year, so why create tensions now between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia?” one source familiar with the Algiers discussions said. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday he was concerned that oil production gains, mainly from the United States, could outstrip a projected increase in oil demand and result in an inventory overhang globally.
