Nigeria net forex inflow stood at $5.75bn in October—CBN

Central Bank of Nigeria has said in its October 2019 monthly report that the Foreign exchange inflow into, and outflow from, the CBN in October 2019 were $4.10 billion and $4.77 billion, respectively, resulting in a net outflow of $0.67 billion. According to the CBN report “Aggregate foreign exchange inflow into, and outflow from, the economy were $10.89 billion and $5.14 billion, respectively, resulting in a net inflow of $5.75 billion. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to the authorised dealers amounted to $2.79 billion, in the review period, compared with $2.80 billion in the preceding month”.

It said that “The average exchange rate of the Naira at the inter-bank, the BDC segment and the “investors” and “exporters” window were N306.96/US$, N359.00/US$ and N362.38/US$, respectively, in October 2019, compared with N306.92/US$, N359.00/US$ and N362.28/US$ in September 2019. The gross external reserves was $39.60 billion at end- October 2019, compared with $40.70 billion at end-September 2019. The major international economic developments and meetings of importance to the domestic economy in the review month included: The 2019 Annual Meetings of the Board of Governors of the World Bank Group (WBG) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held in Washington D.C., USA, from October 14- 20, 2019. The sideline meetings of the Group of Twenty-Four (G-24) countries were also held at the same period.

It said that “Domestic crude oil production was estimated at 1.93 mbd or 59.83 mb in October 2019. Crude oil export was estimated at 1.48 mbd or 45.88 mb, while the allocation of crude oil for domestic consumption was 0.45 mbd or 13.95 mb in the review month. The average spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude oil, the Bonny Light (37° API), fell by 6.4 per cent to $61.10 per barrel in October 2019”. According to the CBN “The end-period headline inflation, on year-on-year and twelve-month moving average bases, was estimated at 11.41 per cent and 11.31 per cent, respectively, in October 2019, compared with 11.24 per cent and 11.26 per cent, in September 2019.

The CBN said that Aggregate credit to the domestic economy (net), on month-on-month basis, grew by 4.8 per cent to N35,918.2 billion at end-September 2019, compared with the growth of 2.5 per cent and 7.0 per cent at the end of the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively. The development was attributed to the respective increase of 10.6 per cent and 2.6 per cent in net claims on the Federal Government and claims on the private sector. Relative to the level at end-December 2018, aggregate credit to the domestic economy (net), rose by 30.3 per cent, compared with the growth of 24.3 per cent and 1.9 per cent at end-August 2019 and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively. 

Net claims on the Federal Government, on month-on-month basis, grew by 10.6 per cent to N10,452.2 billion at end-September 2019, compared with the growth of 3.4 per cent and 54.9 per cent at end-August 2019 and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively. The growth in net claims on the Federal Government reflected the increase in holdings of government securities by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Over the level at end-December 2018, net claims on the Federal Government rose significantly by 114.8 per cent, compared with the growth of 94.3 per cent at the end of the preceding month. Relative to the level at end-August 2019, banking system credit to the private sector rose by 2.6 per cent at end-September 2019, compared with the growth of 2.2 per cent apiece at the end of the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2018. The development was attributed to the 1.7 per cent and 9.0 per cent increase in claims on the core private sector and claims on the state and local government, respectively. Over the level

“At N894.09 billion, the estimated federally-collected revenue (gross) in October 2019 fell below both the monthly budget estimate of N1,246.07 billion and the preceding month’s receipt by 28.2 per cent and 0.9 per cent, respectively. The decline, relative to the monthly budget estimate, was attributed to shortfall in both oil and non-oil revenue. At N894.90 billion, the estimated federally-collected revenue (gross) in October 2019 fell short of the monthly budget estimate of N1,246.07 billion by 28.2 per cent. Oil Revenue Gross Non-Oil Revenue Gross Oil receipts, at N577.30 billion or 64.6 per cent of total revenue, was below the monthly budget estimate of N798.83 billion by 27.7 per cent. However, it exceeded the receipt of N467.58 billion in the preceding month by 23.5 per cent. The decrease in oil revenue relative to the monthly budget estimate was attributed to shut-ins and shut-downs at some NNPC terminals due to pipeline leakages and maintenance activities.

Similarly, at N316.79 billion or 35.4 per cent of total revenue, non-oil receipt was below the monthly budget estimate of N447.24 billion and the preceding month’s earning of N434.52 billion by 29.2 per cent and 27.1 per cent, respectively. The drop in collection, relative to the monthly budget estimate, was, due to the decline in revenue from Corporate Tax, VAT, Education Tax and Federal Government Independent Revenue” the apex bank said 

According to the CBN “At N316.79 billion, non-oil receipts (gross) was lower than the monthly budget estimate by 29.2 per cent and constituted 35.4 per cent of total revenue. Of the total, N697.50 billion was retained in the Federation Account. The sums of N89.16 billion, N23.11 billion, and N2.33 billion were transferred to the VAT Pool Account, Federal Government Independent revenue, and “Others”, respectively, leaving a net balance of N582.90 billion for distribution to the three (3) tiers of government. Of this amount, the Federal Government received N279.98 billion, while the state and local governments received N142.01 billion and N109.49 billion, respectively. The balance of N51.42 billion was shared among the oil producing states as 13% Derivation Fund. Similarly, from the N89.16 billion transferred to the VAT Pool Account, the Federal Government received N13.37 billion, while the state and local governments received N44.58 billion and N31.21 billion, respectively. In addition, the sum of N0.95 billion was distributed in the month as Exchange Gain, with the Federal, state and local governments receiving N0.44 billion, N0.22 billion and N0.17 billion, respectively, while the 13% Derivation Fund received N0.12 billion. Overall, total allocation to the three (3) tiers of government in October 2019 amounted to N673.01 billion. This was below the monthly budget estimate of N1,090.67 billion and the preceding month’s allocation of N676.90 billion by 38.3 per cent and 0.6 per cent, respectively”.

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