Global wheat supplies for 2017/18 are projected to lower as a 1.7-million-ton production increase is offset by a 2.7-million-ton decrease in beginning stocks. The primary production increase is for Russia, which is raised 3.5 million tons to a record 81.0 million tons; this change is based on excellent growing conditions and updated harvest results.
According to global agricultural production projection report by the United States of America signed by Robert Johansson Secretary of Agriculture Designate “Australia production for 2017/18 is lowered 1.0 million tons on dry conditions, and the EU is lowered 0.7 million tons. In addition, historical production changes for Australia led to lower global ending stocks. The 2015/16 Australia production change is on updated Australia Bureau of Statistics data which lowered harvested area 1.5 million hectares.
“Australia’s 2016/17 harvested area is lowered 0.5 million hectares. Global trade for 2017/18 is essentially unchanged. However, exports are increased 1.0 million tons for Russia on the larger crop, 0.5 million tons for Ukraine, and 0.3 million tons for Turkey. These are partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for EU exports and a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Australia. Total global use is up 0.5 million tons. With total supplies declining and use increasing, global ending stocks are lowered 1.6 million tons.
“Global coarse grain production for 2017/18 is forecast up 2.4 million tons to 1,316.5 million. The 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, slightly lower consumption, reduced trade, and larger stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast to decline relative to last month with reductions for Serbia, Ukraine, the EU, and Russia more than offsetting increases for Argentina and Mexico. The projected corn yield for Ukraine is reduced based on heat and dryness during the month of August. In Argentina, corn area is raised from last month and is now forecast to be record high. Barley production is raised for Russia and Canada, but lowered for Argentina and the EU.
“Corn exports are lowered for Serbia and Russia, but increased for Ukraine. Despite a smaller crop, Ukraine’s relatively large exportable supplies and logistical advantages are expected to fill demand for imported corn in the EU. Brazil’s 2016/17 exports are raised for the local marketing year beginning March 2017. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2017/18 are virtually unchanged from last month, with declines for Brazil, Serbia, Ukraine, and Russia offset by increases for Argentina and Mexico. Global corn stocks, at 202.5 million tons, are up 1.6 million from last month.
“Total U.S. rice supplies are reduced 6.6 million cwt from last month due to a lower production forecast. In the September Crop Production report, NASS reduced the 2017/18 U.S. crop size by 6.7 million cwt to 179.7 million, primarily on lower area. NASS incorporated FSA certified acreage data this month in adjusting forecast acreage lower. The average all rice yield also declined by 9 pounds to 7,504 pounds per acre. Long-grain production is reduced by 5.3 million cwt and combined medium-short is decreased by 1.4 million. The reduction in 2017/18 supplies results in both lower projected domestic use and residual and exports.
“All rice ending stocks are reduced 1.1 million cwt to 29.0 million, the lowest level since 2007/08. The 2017/18 all rice season-average farm price is raised $0.50 per cwt at the midpoint to a range of $12.70 to $13.70. Prices for all rice classes are increased this month. Global 2017/18 rice supplies are increased to 603.7 million tons, primarily on higher production and beginning stocks for India. Production increases are partly offset by reductions in China and Bangladesh. World 2017/18 consumption is increased by 1.1 million tons to 480.2 million. Global 2017/18 trade is raised to a record 44.2 million tons on higher exports from Burma and India”.
