AFEX raises concern over decline in food production in Nigeria, Kenya

AFEX has raised concerns over decline in food production in Nigeria and Kenya based on its 2024 Wet Season Crop Production report launched at a hybrid event. A statement released by AFEX, provides key insights into the underlying factors influencing the commodities landscape such as production levels, price performance and market outlook for the coming season. AFEX expanded its research to include Kenya asides just Nigeria, providing critical insight into the agricultural sectors of both nations across key commodities value chains such as Maize, Paddy rice, Soybean, Sesame, Ginger, Cocoa and Sorghum. The report features data gathered from over 51,000 farmers across Nigeria and key producing counties in Kenya. It provides the agriculture ecosystem and key stakeholders with reliable intel as a guide for policy development and data-driven trading decisions. 
According to AFEX, the Nigeria Report reveals huge agricultural potential for the nation that unfortunately, remains largely untapped by producers struggling to keep up with growing demands. This is owing to factors such as high cost of inputs, lack of financing, growing climate change concerns across dry spells and harsh rainfalls, pest infestation amongst other concerns. Amidst the general downward trend in commodity production, commodities such as sorghum, ginger, cocoa and sesame, however, present an upward trend primarily due to expanded cultivation and strong recovery and response efforts to last year’s price surges. Meanwhile, on the other hand, the Kenya agricultural sector remains reliant on rain-fed farming, with average farm sizes ranging from 0.2 to three hectares, this heavily impacts on the production levels falling below potential. Challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, insufficient investment, post-harvest losses, and climate change continue to impede progress in enhancing local production. This decline, coupled with Kenya’s significant reliance on imports, poses a significant threat to national food security, highlighting the need for targeted intervention to enhance local production. The report reads in part, “Paddy rice, a key dietary staple in Nigeria is projected to decrease by 2.6 per cent, resulting in a total output of approximately 8.1 million metric tons. This decline is primarily driven by the high cost of fertilizers, leading to reduced yields while prompting many farmers to shift to alternative crops like sesame and sorghum that require less fertilizer and are more cost-effective to cultivate.
“Additionally, widespread insecurity in major rice-producing states have disrupted farming activities, with severe flooding in several regions further compounding the issue. As a result of these factors, the availability and price of paddy rice is expected to be significantly affected in the coming year, raising concerns about food security and affordability for consumers across the country. Kenya is also set to see a modest decline in maize production by one per cent due to decreased fertilizer usage as input prices increase. Amidst, numerous government interventions, the nation is yet to receive yields but maize prices have experienced a 29 per cent decline, primarily driven by sustained imports from neighbouring countries, which offset anticipated yield gains.
This has led to concerns around even reduced output by local farmers in the coming season. Nigeria on the other hand has similar trends with maize production set to decline by 5.6 per cent attributed to a reduction in cultivated land due to rising costs, limited fertilizer usage, and adverse climatic conditions expected to negatively impact crop yields. Consequently, maize prices are expected to surge significantly during the 2024/2025 season, impacting both farmers and consumers. “Overall, commodity pricing trends in Nigeria and Kenya reveal significant variations both influenced by production challenges and market dynamics. In Nigeria, the report forecasts a notable increase in ginger prices by over 90 per cent due to heightened demand and lingering effects of the fungal attack from last season. Both reports underscore the urgent need for policy development aimed at enhancing agricultural productivity and food security as well as increased investment into agro-processing and infrastructure to mitigate these challenges.”
Speaking at the launch, President and Chief Executive Officer, CEO, AFEX Nigeria, Akinyinka Akintunde, said, “Each year, we conduct this extensive survey involving over 40,000 farmers to gain deeper insights into the challenges facing our agricultural sector. The findings of the survey underscore the urgent need for targeted interventions to enhance productivity, particularly in staples like maize and rice. More importantly, the report helps us see the critical areas that need intervention and that is a plus. By addressing critical issues such as access to quality inputs, climate resilience, and market stability, we can significantly improve food security and empower our farmers, ultimately driving economic growth and sustainability in Nigeria.”