2025 annual flood outlook, Lagos, Abia, Benue, Bayelsa, Rivers, Jigawa, 1,249 communities, 176 LGs, 30 states at high risk—FG

Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, NIHSA, has said in its 2025 flood out look that 1,249 communities in 176 Local Government Areas spread across 30 states and the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, fall within high-risk flood zones this year. Additionally, 2,187 communities in 293 LGAs face moderate flood risks, adding that key risk areas include Abia, Benue, Lagos, Bayelsa, Rivers, and Jigawa, among others. NIHSA, at the event in Abuja, also rolled out community-based forecasting initiative in line with the theme of the event, ‘Flood Resilience: Focusing on Communities’ Preparedness and Adaptive Strategies for Flood Management’. Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Engr Joseph Utsev who unveiled the 2025 Annual Flood Outlook, AFO, noted that flooding remains one of the most devastating natural disasters in Nigeria, with climate change accelerating its frequency and severity.
According to him, “1,249 communities in 176 Local Government Areas LGAs across 30 states and the FCT fall within high-risk flood zones this year, while an additional 2,187 communities in 293 LGAs face moderate flood risks. Key risk areas include Abia, Benue, Lagos, Bayelsa, Rivers, and Jigawa, among others. “As part of this year’s Annual Flood Outlook AFO, NIHSA adopted a new and effective approach to flood forecasting mechanism to ensure that critical risk information is clearly understood and actionable for vulnerable communities. Recognizing that early warning is only impactful when properly communicated, the flood prediction has been refined to provide not only seasonal and monthly forecasts, but location-specific and community-focused forecasts.” The AFO also contains three documents on Flood Forecast -offering detailed scenarios of likely flooding events; Flood Risk Communication – providing tools to translate forecasts into timely action; as well as Flood Mitigation and Adaptation – outlining key measures to reduce flood vulnerability.
Highlighting innovation and collaboration, the Minister also announced the rollout of several pioneering projects, including the National Flood Insurance Programme, NFIP, which he said is a first-of-its-kind initiative offering insurance protection to vulnerable households, farmlands, and livestock, beginning with pilot schemes in Kogi and Jigawa States. Others are “Integrated Climate Resilience Innovation Project I-CRIP, which was developed in partnership with key Ministries, and aims to improve food security, energy production, and water resource use through climate-smart strategies. “NigerFLOOD Project: A transformative flood control and river management effort from Lokoja to Bayelsa, targeting improved navigation, irrigation, hydropower, and eco-tourism. Annual Drought Outlook: To be unveiled later this year, it will complement the AFO by forecasting drought patterns and promoting holistic water resource planning”, he stated. The Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Water Resources and Sanitation, Mr Richard Pheelangwah, in his welcome address urged stakeholders to prioritize early response.
According to him, the “outlook is not just about numbers, it is about protecting lives and livelihoods.” Director General and Chief Executive Officer, NIHSA, Umar Ibrahim Mohammed, noted that this year’s flood forecast goes beyond mapping LGAs and now identifies specific communities at risk. He said: “Our focus has expanded to assess sectoral impacts, on health, education, agriculture, and infrastructure, offering more robust tools to policymakers and disaster risk managers.” Mohammed added that the AFO’s enhanced methodology is the result of continuous feedback, technological advancement, and broad inter-agency collaboration. “We are transforming flood data into real-time decisions and impactful resilience-building”, he said. The 2025 AFO is an innovative flood management strategy as it emphasizes preparedness, science-driven planning, and community empowerment. As Nigeria braces for the 2025 rainy season, speakers at the event urged state governments, local councils, and at-risk communities to act on the forecast’s insights, strengthen disaster preparedness plans, and participate in national programmes designed to reduce vulnerability and save lives.